Jim Coventry

Detroit’s offense is built around rhythm and precision, and after a home loss they are set up to respond with urgency. Washington is starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota and has struggled to find consistency on offense, while their defense can’t contain balanced rushing attacks. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery both have a strong edge against the Commanders’ front, giving Detroit control of the ground game. With steady protection for Jared Goff and a motivated roster, the Lions are in line to win comfortably.

Carolina’s defense has been ineffective at creating pressure, giving New Orleans a chance to move the ball steadily through Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. The Saints run defense matches up well against a Panthers ground game that leans on short gains and lacks explosion, likely forcing Carolina into long passing downs. Bryce Young is unlikely to have sustained success on obvious passing downs against a defense that can still disrupt timing and close quickly on throws. With New Orleans able to control pace and protect the football, they can keep this game within one score.

Los Angeles’ offense has too many weapons for the Saints to match, especially with New Orleans breaking in a first-time starting quarterback on the road. The Saints’ defense will keep them in it early, but eventually the Rams’ efficient short passing and superior red-zone execution will break it open as the turnovers and three-and-outs from New Orleans pile up.

San Francisco should control this game behind Christian McCaffrey and a balanced offense that mixes power runs with well-timed play-action passes to George Kittle and quick throws that keep Mac Jones in rhythm. The Giants’ soft interior run defense and shaky edge containment set up steady drives and clock control for the 49ers. On defense, while injuries have thinned San Francisco’s pass rush, the unit remains built on discipline- rallying to the ball, tackling cleanly, and forcing opponents to string together long, mistake-free drives. With New York’s offense struggling to run between the tackles or consistently win downfield, the 49ers’ efficiency and tackling fundamentals should carry them to a comfortable cover at -2.5.

Baltimore’s physical style gives them the edge to cover -7.5. With Lamar Jackson healthy and Derrick Henry powering an inside run game against Miami’s soft interior defense, the Ravens can dictate tempo and control possession. Jackson’s dual-threat ability forces Miami’s edge defenders to hesitate, opening both running lanes and play-action shots to Mark Andrews or Rashod Bateman. The Dolphins’ offense will struggle to sustain drives when Baltimore’s front pressures Tua Tagovailoa, especially given Miami’s shaky interior line. Expect the Ravens’ balance and defensive discipline to wear down the Dolphins over four quarters.

The Colts are the safer side because they win where this game will be decided, at the line of scrimmage, with a balanced offense that travels, a quarterback who distributes efficiently, and a defense facing a rookie passer behind a struggling line. This is a divisional spot that cuts against a letdown, and the first meeting was a blowout that showcased the same matchup edges, with Jonathan Taylor setting the tone and multiple pass catchers winning on play action. Tennessee arrives shorthanded and limited on offense, which makes sustained drives unlikely if the Colts control early downs again. With superior trench play, clearer offensive identity, and the stronger run game, Indianapolis is well positioned to cover a big number at home.